“SBC: Membership Is Down, There Are Fewer Churches, but Baptisms Are Up”

I’m really surprised that baptisms are up! Since the New Calvinists took over the SBC, they really aren’t preaching ‘the’ Gospel.

Of course, it might be like the SBC NeoCal church I attended once where the young pastor declared from the pulpit “Baptizing next Sunday! Sign up on Facebook!” There was no Gospel preached that day, no invitation to accept Christ, no repentance, no outward sign that salvations were happening there … so what was that all about? … just sign up on Facebook and show up to be baptized?! It’s a totally different world in the land of predestination than the whosoever-will-may-come SBC I once knew.

From 1950 to 2010, SBC averaged nearly 400,000 baptisms per year. Then the New Calvinists showed up …

I note that the Pew Religious Landscape has the following (2023/24):
* 4% of U.S. adults identify as members of the Southern Baptist Convention.
* 10% are between the ages of 18 and 29, 21% are ages 30 to 49, 31% are ages 50 to 65 and 36% are 65 and older.

US overall (note the US median age has been rising)
* 19% for 18-29, 33% for 30-49, 24% for 50-64, 23% for 65+.

In 2007 the SBC age distribution was
* 13% for 18-29, 37% for 30-49, 27% for 50-64 21% for 65+

A couple of notes:

1. I don’t know of any reputable statistician who would treat Lifeway Research with any degree of credibility. They don’t make any of their methodology public, so no one can peer review their findings. They are nothing more than a marketing arm of the Lifeway publishing group.

2. Membership is, as Dee suggests, a completely unreliable measure. The church I attend recently cut its membership by 70% in 2024 by culling the names of people who had moved, stopped attending, could not be reached, etc. Because there are incentives to overreport membership, it is rarely culled. If you aggregate garbage data, you still have garbage data.

3. I am not surprised by the 250,000 baptism number. Over the last couple of years, there has been a strong convergence of religious conservatives, cultural conservatives, and political conservatives. This shift is likely creating a ‘churn’ as people who lean and identify as ‘right’ join the SBC and people who do not agree with the rightward shift are leaving. I expect the number of baptisms to increase for a few years, until the churn starts to settle back down.

4. As a general rule, I tend to lend much more weight to organizations such as Gallup, Pew, and PRRI. The challenge is that these polling methods depend on self-reporting beliefs and behaviors. (A) Over the past couple of years, polling has changed as fewer and fewer people answer their phones. Polling organizations are shifting to online polling. (B) When self-reporting, people tend to answer in a way that they think makes them look good.

As a result, these organizations tend to prominently disclaim that data collected in the last couple of years might not be comparable to historic results due to changes in methodology and cultural mores.

I’m kinda going off on a tangent, but I know some of you must remember Ronnie Floyd’s fire truck Baptisms.
Turning a church into an entertainment venue will certainly draw crowds……( free babysitters can be a bonus, too).

https://baptistnews.com/article/opinion-baptism-by-fire-truck/
The unique baptistry, created by Disney designer Bruce Barry, is part of a $270,000 high-tech project for the church’s children’s worship area that includes video games, a light show, music videos and a bubble machine, according to Christianity Today. When a child is baptized in the fire-truck-shaped baptistry, sirens blare and confetti is fired out of cannons.

Just wondering….. how many kids who were baptized at Floyd’s theme-park-based-Sunday-school joined his church and disappeared a few months later, and if their names are still on the roll.

Some of this is the Lordship Salvation faction of Calvinism, aka Johnny Mac. It is a common thing for a person to get saved, get baptized in an SBC church, and live for Christ for 40 years only to have some bozo come in and tell them if they still trip and sin, or didn’t understand the faith (aka the TULIP) their baptism wasn’t valid because they were not really saved. Rebaptizing long time loyal saved serving Baptists has been their schtick for a very long time. Easy way to inflate the numbers as in: before I came this church had baptized no one for 5 years. First year I was here I baptized 40. Yep, the same 40 baptized loving serving believers than comprise the entire rural community. Looks good on a dudebro resume though.

I grew up with many people who had been baptized as teens, but didn’t continue in any kind of church after they went on to college. I wonder how many of them ended up in any church at all? Many of them were SBC baptisms.

In my own church, our baptisms are up, but we are losing older members due to some concerns with the leadership (they are legitimate concerns, by the way), and our finances are suddenly plummeting. Guess who keeps the church solvent? I keep praying that the leadership is taking notice. We do have a finance meeting coming up soon.

From what I can tell, the leadership message is “if you don’t like how we’re doing things, leave.” And that’s exactly what some people are doing. I haven’t felt the need to leave yet, but I am concerned that people keep disappearing. It’s nothing to do with dudebro pastors; just newer policies and procedures (some good) that have been insisted on instead of some more nuanced adoptions (that would be my personal call).

Luckyforward: a baptism service would be scheduled and it would be a solemn and holy moment. But no more . . .

IMO, SBC has few solemn and holy moments these days. I experienced some of those precious times with the Lord during my long tenure as a Southern Baptist … but when holy left the SBC, I did too. Scripture provides stark warnings about the consequences of mishandling holy things … yet, this new breed of “pastors” in SBC ranks appear to have no reverence for what should be solemn and holy events in the life of the church.

The SBC is dragged through the mud on this website on a regular basis, and not without good reason. But among these problematic churches, there are some good ones. It is not true that the SBC requires baptism in an SBC church to join. I was baptized in another denomination in 1986 and joined a small SBC church in 2007. There was never a request I be rebaptized. It was not an issue. I was already baptized. A group of NeoCal’s did try to take us over a few years ago, but failed, and left. We are congregation lead. At every quarterly business meeting the entire membership gets a copy of the current line item budget. Anybody can have a copy of the bylaws anytime they want. We have a child protection policy. We thoroughly vet our children’s workers. Any question, we will call the police. Do we have women preachers? Nope. But women are valued, respected, and heard. The true gospel, that Christ died for our sins, is preached. Perfect church? Far from it. It is full of humans. But Christ is honored and at its center. God is still at work, even in the SBC.

Burwell Stark,

The sbc is very good at using talking points.

SarahM.: It is not true that the SBC requires baptism in an SBC church to join.

As I understand it, individual SBC churches make their own decision about this matter … in the spirit of local church autonomy. Autonomy works in SBC as long as you don’t go contrary to current hot buttons, such as ordaining women pastors … Saddleback Church found this out when the fury of SBC came down upon them, so they took their church and big buck support out of SBC affiliation … as one commenter noted, “it’s all so silly.”

Burwell Stark,

I don’t think it’s that hard to understand the information:
Baptisms are up-probably mostly young people who move out of the area or don’t ever join the church as a member
Fewer churches-members, whether new or established, are leaving (either leaving the church altogether, or leaving for other churches. They also may be dying off).

Conclusion: Less people are becoming members and/or staying = fewer churches due to closures and mergers.

A better study might be to look at SBC churches in certain demographic and geographic areas to find out what kinds of churches are closing (the ones that are down t0 25 with elderly members? Ones that have lost their younger members to other churches?) to see what all of the factors are.

I was a missionary overseas for almost a decade in the mid 80s to 90s. Rural churches were closing (which made some of the older missionaries panic), but it was mostly because of depopulation in those areas. The emphasis had to be on church planting in urban areas. My board had larger urban churches adopt country churches outside the city perimeter, sending people to preach and train those who remained. The interesting result-those churches began growing, too, reaching many that had not been reached before. You need accurate numbers, and then you need to know how to use those numbers, to affect outcomes in church growth.

I frequently mentioned the SBC’s little secret. I believed that the membership numbers were a lot smaller than presented.

JUST LIKE SCIENTOLOGY!

Sorry, I made a cut-and-paste error in my last comment; it should have been directed to Linn.
—
FWIW, the 13 million number is probably in the right ballpark for the number of SBC members in the US.

The 2024 PEW religious-landscape-study estimated that 4% of Americans self-identify as SBC. 350 million people * .04% = 14 million people. It would be reasonable to assume that somewhere between 12 million and 16 million people self-identify as SBC, using rough estimates of 3.5% and 4.5% of US population.

—

For a very rough approximation, if 250,000 people get baptised every year and then live 50 more years, that would result in 250,000 * 50, or 12.5 million people.

Assuming everyone lives for 50 more years, they could just about break even. Add in additional deaths and dropouts; one would think the overall membership will fall.

—

Without more information, I would be comfortable saying there are between 12 and 16 million members. (This does not assume what portion of those people are active or what portion haven’t seen the inside of a church in 50 years.)

The 250,000 baptisms per year are higher than they were a few years ago, but they are not high enough to balance out deaths and dropouts, so the membership numbers are likely to continue falling at around 200,000 per year unless they can turn things around.

As a really wide guess, I think it would be fair to assume the need to increase baptisms back to 350,000 per year and reduce dropouts by 100,000 per year to maintain membership.

Headless Unicorn Guy,

Why not both?

Erp: 4% of adult Americans but the SBC skews elderly so fewer children (one of the other results is what percentage have children under 18, in 2007 it was 32%, in 2023/24 it was 22%

Time to go bedroom evangelist and start preaching Quiverfull Or Else…
Or go directly to the CCP method and cold-call all the women demanding ‘WHY ARE YOU NOT PREGNANT?”

P.S. There is a completely-secular version of Quiverfull called “Natalism”, a Latter-Day Eugenics where the Superior People (guess who?) must Outbreed their Inferiors or risk Idiocracy.

Erp: 4% of adult Americans but the SBC skews elderly so fewer children (one of the other results is what percentage have children under 18, in 2007 it was 32%, in 2023/24 it was 22% [Pew says to be cautious given methodology changes but 2014 which used a similar method to 2007 had already dropped to 26%, note that this percentage is also likely dropping for the US population as a whole])…..

I agree that we should put wide error bars on these estimates.

I am watching the age skew with interest. Younger members are more likely to be of childbearing age, but money tends to be tighter. Older silent and baby boomer generations are past childbearing age but tend to have more wealth and are more willing to donate to the church.

In order to get baptisms up, Southern Baptists will either have to have more babies and then retain them (for society as a whole 2.4 children per woman would be break even, that would probably be close to 3 or 3.5 children per woman of childbearing age given SBC age skew), poach people from other churches, or convert nones.

I agree there is a difference between a member and an active member. Pew acknowledges it by attempting to measure various beliefs and behaviors, while Lifeway waves it away like a magician.

How exciting, a “new paradigm”, focused on new vocabulary and 7-year plans, out today from an ‘expert’ of the denomination:

https://thebaptistpaper.org/new-paradigm-celebrate-the-replacement-of-revitalize-and-replant-strategies/

“None of us have yet found the Holy Grail for the continual vitality and vibrancy of congregations. We need a new paradigm, but it will take two decades to fully implement. Can Southern Baptists be this patient? It must include changing how we launch new congregations.”

“What I present here is an approach that may work. We will not know for sure until we try it. The challenge is that it calls for a radical shift in our approach.”

“we need to take the following actions: First, new terminology: Avoid using any word that begins with ‘RE’. This prefix typically signifies ‘again’ or ‘back’. We should encourage congregations to move forward toward the new thing God is doing in and through them. Some of the most common terms currently used include ‘reenvision’, ‘revitalize’, ‘renew’, ‘rethink’ and ‘replant’. All of these should be abandoned. Consider words like ‘dream’, ‘envision’, ‘launch’, ‘create’, ‘imagine’, ‘journey’, ‘venture’ or ‘aspire’.”

“My suggested model is simple…

…with new congregations. Hardwire into their culture and practice to see the life of their congregation as a series of seven-year spiritual and strategic adventures — six years of missional engagement then a seventh year as a sabbatical to discern the next adventure.”

“Always follow this pattern”

“Let the patterns of the context and the people groups determine the quality and style of the programs, ministries and activities in which the congregation engages. If the congregation ever allows who is inside the congregation to determine what it ought to do, then it creates distance between itself and the context and people groups God gave it.”

“this transformation to a new way of looking at the life of congregations will take 20 to 25 years'”

“Let’s be realistic. Not all of new congregations and newly launched existing congregations will follow this model with faithfulness, effectiveness and innovation. But if more than 50% do, it will transform our denominational movement”

Jerome,

Believe you me, most denominational Reformed I know would be happy to be distanced from the SBC and their brand.

Jerome: “Let’s be realistic. Not all of new congregations and newly launched existing congregations will follow this model with faithfulness, effectiveness and innovation. But if more than 50% do, it will transform our denominational movement”

“transform our denomination” is NeoCal code for “reform the SBC”

Jerome: ‘reenvision’, ‘revitalize’, ‘renew’, ‘rethink’ and ‘replant’

“Always use Proper Code Words! ‘Relocation’, ‘resettlement’, ‘delousing’…”
— Holocaust (Seventies miniseries), Babi Yar scene

Jerome: ‘reenvision’, ‘revitalize’, ‘renew’, ‘rethink’ and ‘replant’

The “REs” that SBC desperately need are ‘Repentance’ and ‘Revival’! Other REs are futile efforts unless genuine repentance and revival happen throughout SBC ranks. Unfortunately, I don’t see any current SBC leadership in place who are spiritually equipped to accomplish that, nor movement in the pew for folks to humble themselves, pray, repent and seek God as they ought. So the beat goes on with new church growth models and gimmicks to accomplish what only God can “IF” Southern Baptists would just do the right thing and invite God back into the house. “IF my people … THEN will I”

Sandy: Time’s the revelator

“If this teaching or movement is merely human it will collapse of its own accord” (Acts 5:38)

Burwell Stark:
Jerome,

Believe you me, most denominational Reformed I know would be happy to be distanced from the SBC and their brand.

That is true. These Neo-Cals are a la carte Calvinists and posers really. They go all in on Calvinist soteriology, but conveniently ignore other things like the regulative principle of worship, have a memorial view of the Lord’s Supper, many hold dispensationalist in their eschatology (John MacArthur is exbihit A of that), and so on. So their Reformed Theology is really a kludge, a Frankenstein’s monster of beliefs cobbled together from multiple theological frameworks.

Jerome,

“If the congregation ever allows who is inside the congregation to determine what it ought to do, then it creates distance between itself and the context and people groups God gave it.”
+++++++++++++++

George Bullard, who wrote this article, states this like it’s obvious.

haven’t a clue what it means… anyone?

elastigirl:
Jerome,

“If the congregation ever allows who is inside the congregation to determine what it ought to do, then it creates distance between itself and the context and people groups God gave it.”
+++++++++++++++

George Bullard, who wrote this article, states this like it’s obvious.

haven’t a clue what it means… anyone?

It is nothing more than jibberish IMO.

elastigirl: haven’t a clue what it means… anyone?

You’re not alone, I can’t make heads nor tails from it either.

Troy: I dislike many things about Heath Lambert of First Baptist Jacksonville, but do respect that he reduced the reported church membership from 30,000 down to a realistic 2,100.

Whoa, so the ‘real’ membership of FB-Jacksonville was less than 10% of the reported membership?! If every SBC church fudged their member rolls that much, that would reduce their claimed 16 million members to less than 2 million! Perhaps the largest Protestant denomination in America is not.

Troy: I remember many older people in the church getting baptized a second time, supposedly wanting to get their baptism “on the right side of their salvation.”

Perhaps they weren’t really saved when they received their first baptism? A lot of children follow the leader to the altar during church evangelistic meetings, at Vacation Bible School, and at summer church camps … only to realize later in life that they really hadn’t experienced an encounter with the Living Christ as a child; and thus, a second baptism when they genuinely repented and expressed faith in Him.

Most of SBC’s 47,000 churches have less than 200 members.

Headless Unicorn Guy: And a Third,
And a Fourth,
And a Fifth…

Water dissolving and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean
Under the water, carry the water
Remove the water from the bottom of the ocean
Water dissolving and water removing

Letting the days go by, let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by, water flowing underground
Into the blue again, into the silent water
Under the rocks and stones, there is water underground

Letting the days go by, let the water hold me down
Leting the days go by, water flowing underground
Into the blue again, after the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime, water flowing underground

You may ask yourself, “What is that beautiful house?”
You may ask yourself, “Where does that highway go to?”
And you may ask yourself, “Am I right, am I wrong?”
And you may say to yourself, “My God, what have I done?”

Sandy,

i’d never seen this music video. LOVE the raw & honest performance art aspect of it.

Muff Potter: Why would the Almighty send kind and good people to hell?

How does the Almighty define “good”? Scripture even says:

“None is righteous, no, not one;
no one understands;
no one seeks for God.
All have turned aside; together they have become worthless;
no one does good,
not even one.” (Romans 3:10-12)

That chapter goes on to say that God views righteousness (goodness) through the lens of faith:

“(There is a) righteousness of God through faith in Jesus Christ for all who believe. For there is no distinction: for all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God, and are justified by his grace as a gift, through the redemption that is in Christ Jesus, whom God put forward as a propitiation by his blood, to be received by faith.” (Romans 3:21-26)

Only then are we “good” in God’s eyes.

Ras al Ghul: many hold dispensationalist in their eschatology (John MacArthur is exbihit A of that),

Calvinist Sotieriology and Rapture Eschatology sounds like a Really BAD combination.
Combining the worse aspects of both.

“Maybe we should just all hold hands and walk into a chopper blade.”
— Hawkeye Pierce, 4077th MaSH